I am not a doctor and have nothing to say about the current global epidemic other than stay safe and do your part to keep others safe. Although, from a business and product perspective, the unfortunate circumstances do hold some valuable information that we can learn from. Namely, what is that really has value to people and which companies can actually capture said value?
Setting the stage
Right now, we have a precarious social constraint on our daily lives, we can’t be around each other. From my observations of myself and others, this has led to an illumination of who I miss being around. All of sudden there is clarity about who is and is not important in daily life. Let’s call this communication essentialism.
There have also been second order economic consequences of what is effectively a global lock down. Empirically, this has led to or will soon lead to necessary economic austerity from both individuals and organizations alike. Let’s call this cash is king mode.
Real demand
Communication essentialism and cash is king mode expose real demand. It helps us answer questions that are fundamental to sustainable products, businesses and lives.
Who do people really need to communicate with?
What do different cohorts of individuals really need to buy?
What are the tools and products that actually make that possible?
It is not often that individuals and entities have to get so clear about what they need and why it matters most.
The window of opportunity
This won’t last forever. That is a good thing for obvious global health reasons, but it is also a motivating fact for individuals and entities. We must use this time wisely as these events and their corresponding insights are rare.
In product
The best products sharply identify the moments of struggle and pain in someones life and alleviate them, usually through information or abstraction. Right now is a great time to understand where those struggling moments are from current users, future users or target markets.
For example, I usually go to yoga class in person. Obviously I cannot do that right now, so live streaming classes is the only option, and I am willing to pay for it. This does not mean that yoga IRL will go away, it means that (1) There is real demand for yoga generally (2) There is real demand for live stream yoga. I would be willing to bet that the CAGR for the industry in fact grows this year, in terms of adoption. (The unit economics of a yoga studio is a whole other story). .
Same thing goes for fine dining
In asset accumulation
Similar to products, great investments are durable in a downturn. This is not any kind of claim on value investing vs trend following or some other investment framework. This is to say that these times clarify the businesses that are strong, resilient and worth owning. Facebook, Amazon and Apple are obvious here, but crypto is also extremely compelling. The simple question of why can these crypto assets survive these crashes is proof enough of their current and future utility.
So briefly, what should we look for in the assets we will accumulate?:
Alternative forms of cash flow (or usage)
High Margin
Cash on the balance sheet
Resilience of management and strategic decision making
Low debt
Heres an example:
In life
Right now I have never been more grateful for my health, my families health and the people in the world who have devoted their lives to preventing and healing disease and all kinds of human ailment. From yoga teachers to healthcare workers to mental health experts. This is an opportune time to clarify who and what really matters in life.
Health, family, close friends and maybe a few other things. At least for me, in the rat race of normal life it is too easy to forget these fundamental gifts.